By Emma Brand

Kenya is currently witnessing a significant decline in its fertility rate, which currently stands at 3.4 children per woman, a significant drop from the 8.0 children reported in 1971. At that time, it was the second-highest rate in Sub-Saharan Africa, only trailing behind Rwanda. This fertility drop is not an isolated phenomenon but aligns with a broader phenomenon observed across the African continent, where fertility rates have been steadily decreasing over the past four decades.

Kenya: A Pioneer for Family Planning in Africa

In 1967, Kenya became the first sub-Saharan African nation to implement a national family planning program. The government’s engagement in population matters was further reinforced through the 1984 Population Policy Guidelines, which aimed to educate parents about the advantages of smaller family sizes. The 2010 Constitution ensured access to reproductive health and family planning services for all citizens. In 2012, a multi-sectoral policy was adopted to decrease the number of children a woman has over her lifetime. Since then, the Kenyan government has been committed to achieving its vision of “0 unmet need for family planning by 2030,” along multiple commitments as part of the Family Planning Initiative (FP2030).

Driven by strong political will and socio-economic development, Kenya has witnessed a decline in fertility rates among women. Over the years, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of women receiving primary and secondary education and utilising contraceptives, while early marriage rates and child mortality have decreased. Education has played a crucial role in this transformation. Providing girls and women with access to education has led to delayed entry into sexual relationships and marriage. This progress in education has empowered women by enhancing their understanding of their rights regarding contraception, resulting in improved economic and social empowerment, and contributing to the reduction in fertility rates.

Kenya’s Situation Reflects a Wider Trend

Across the African continent, the average fertility rate has shown a significant decline from 6.6 children per woman in 1985 to 4.8 children per woman in 2017. This downward trend in fertility is evident in all African regions, including Sahel, Central Africa, Gulf of Guinea, East Africa, Indian Ocean, Southern Africa, and North Africa. Like other continents, various factors contribute to this notable shift. Urbanisation emerges as a major influencer in the reduction of fertility rates. As more people migrate to cities, urban dwellers tend to have fewer children due to factors such as limited living spaces, consumerist behaviours, and decreased reliance on traditional community support compared to rural areas. Another significant factor contributing to declining fertility rates is the transformation in employment patterns and increased female labour force participation. As more women actively engage in the workforce, their reproductive choices are influenced, leading to fewer children on average.

Managing the Demographic Transition  

Kenya, along with Ghana, Lesotho, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe, are currently experiencing a demographic transition characterised by a significant increase in the working-age population compared to dependent populations. This leads to substantial labour market fluctuations annually. The economic impact of this transformation can be positive if the job market absorbs the influx of young workers, but it can also become destabilising if adequate employment opportunities are lacking. Unfortunately, the job market in several of these African countries falls short in generating enough jobs to meet the demand.

According to the African Development Bank, around 10 to 11 million young Africans enter the job market each year, while only 3 million formal jobs are available. As a result, the informal sector is expanding and currently accounts for 85% of total employment in Sub-Saharan Africa, acting as an essential economic and social stabiliser. Despite increasing education levels, young individuals migrate to cities seeking quality jobs, but they often settle for low-productivity jobs that don’t align with their skills and aspirations. The limited capacity of these economies to generate formal jobs has led to a significant increase in youth unemployment rates. In 2022, the International Labour Organization reported that more than “one in five young Africans were unemployed, not in education, or not in training in 2020”. In Kenya solely, the World Bank estimates the youth unemployment rate for the 18-25 age group at 13.4% in 2022.

To avoid the demographic dividend from turning into a “demographic burden”, key measures need to be taken such as enhancing the business environment's quality and bolstering technical and vocational training. Despite some efforts made in recent years, there are notable deficiencies in the national system, necessitating comprehensive reforms to enhance the quality of the human workforce and better align labour supply with demand.